For the first time in a long time, people are really interested in what the ratings are for the wrestling shows each week. With the debut of All Elite Wrestling, NXT moving to Wednesday nights on USA, and Smackdown coming to Fox; ratings have become an important part of the discourse and things that people are really focusing on and trying to read into. So, why not start betting on it?
That’s what the gang over at 888Sport thought at least and they have begun releasing weekly odds for the TV ratings of Raw, Smackdown, NXT, and AEW Dynamite.
This week is an especially tough week for these shows with stiff sports competition. Wednesday night sees game two of the World Series, the start of the NBA season, and more. Ratings are predicted to be all-time lows for AEW and NXT while Smackdown will be moved to FS1 for the World Series. This should be an interesting week for betting on the ratings.
Wrestling Ratings Betting Odds for October 21-27, 2019:
- AEW – 0.95 million viewers
Over +100
Under -139 - NXT – 0.65 million viewers
Over -134
Under -106 - AEW beats NXT by .3 million or more
Yes -118
No -118 - Raw – 2.25 million viewers
Over -112
Under -125 - Smackdown – 1.8 million viewers
Over -125
Under -112 - Raw beats Smackdown by 0.4 million viewers or more
Yes -139
No +100
| NXT ratings history: | AEW ratings history: |
| September 18: 1.18 million | |
| September 25: 1.01 million | |
| October 2: 891,000 | October 2: 1.4 million |
| October 9: 790,000 | October 9: 1.02 million |
| October 16: 712,000 | October 16: 1.01 million |
This might be a good week to take the under on AEW. They have proven that their audience is not as much of a crossover audience with WWE as one might think, but that could especially hurt them this week with so much sports competition. If their audience crosses over with sports more than WWE’s we could see a bigger drop here. Not a lot is known, but the NBA debut is a big one and the World Series features two big market teams. It could hurt this week.
That said, I’d still take them to beat NXT this week. The drop in NXT has been huge week-to-week and their show hasn’t done much to entice viewers that they are the better show. I seriously wonder why USA isn’t pushing to move this show to another night. I think they would do a lot better on Tuesday or Thursday. The channel-flipping era is over and the only thing benefiting from this show being on Wednesday nights is WWE hurting AEW. You’d think USA would be more interested in keeping their overall numbers up.
| Smackdown on Fox ratings history: | WWE Raw ratings history: |
| October 4: 3.9 million | September 30: 2.57 million |
| Octber 11: 2.88 million | October 7: 2.33 million |
| Octber 17: 2.44 million | October 14: 2.28 million |
Friday sees Smackdown moving to FS1 which is in far less homes than Fox and the show is already being viewed as something that doesn’t quite matter in the grand scheme of things. There is stiff competition from the World Series, NBA, college football, and everything else. Even with all of that going on and the lesser network, a drop off of 600,000 viewers is a lot. I’m not sure I can see them going as low as 1.8 million here.
Raw tonight should be a close one. There is a bad Monday Night Football game on and not much competition elsewhere. I could see them holding steady and beating the over here, but enough to outdo Smackdown? I say no, but who knows when it comes to these ratings.
Wrestling Ratings Betting Results for October 21-27, 2019:
- AEW – 0.95 million viewers – OVER
Rating: 0.963 - NXT – 0.65 million viewers – OVER
Rating: 0.698 - AEW beats NXT by .3 million or more – NO
- Raw – 2.25 million viewers – OVER
Rating: 2.34 - Smackdown – 1.8 million viewers – UNDER
Rating: 0.888 - Raw beats Smackdown by 0.4 million viewers or more – YES
