AEW Full Gear Betting Tips

AEW’s third pay-per-view event Full Gear is upon us and we have a complete card for the event. This is the first big show of the AEW Dynamite on TNT era and they have done a strong job building this card behind the top matches.

Cody vs. Chris Jericho for the World Championship is the nominal main event here. Cody stated this past week that if he doesn’t win this match that he won’t challenge for the AEW Championship again.

After that match, we will see Kenny Omega and Jon Moxley facing off in a lights-out, unsanctioned match. The winner won’t count towards the overall AEW records, a point of contention for Moxley, but this should be a classic with the over on 4.25 stars in the Wrestling Observer set at -177.

Let’s take a look at the card and find some good betting values.

AEW Championship – Chris Jericho vs. Cody

  • Chris Jericho (-295) vs. Cody (+200)
    • Dave Meltzer Star Rating
      Over 4.25 (+110)
      Exactly 4.25 (+215)
      Under 4.25 (-118)

This match should be electric as the crowd will be hot for a Cody win here. Will they get it? That’s a bit more complicated.

On the one hand, him winning the title after making that stipulation feels like a strong bet. Jericho may be their biggest name, but Cody is undoubtedly their biggest star. The fans love everything he does and him with the title sets up some interesting stories going forward. From a rematch with Jericho to PAC to Kenny Omega, there are a ton of interesting stories to tell here.

But I am not sure it’s time for that yet. Jericho is doing some of the best work of his career right now and that has legs. This stipulation is very weird as it will take Cody out of the title picture for a long time going forward if he loses, but that feels like the right story to tell. I have Jericho winning this one, but not enough to tip it at that price.

The star rating bet on this one is seems like a good value though. Jericho’s two main events in AEW were 4.25 stars against Kenny Omega and 4 stars against Adam Page. While Cody has the 5 star match against his brother Dustin. This should be the hottest crowd we’ve seen in one of these title matches thus far and I expect them to bring this one to a higher level.

Over 4.25 stars is a solid play as I could see 4.5 or higher.

Unsanctioned Match – Jon Moxley vs. Kenny Omega

  • Jon Moxley (-230) vs. Kenny Omega (+160)
    • Dave Meltzer Star Rating
      Over 4.25 (-177)
      Exactly 4.25 (+234)
      Under 4.25 (+150)

This is the hardest match to pick on the card. On the one hand, you have Jon Moxley who is the biggest signing in AEW history getting his first truly high profile match in the company. On the other, you have Kenny Omega who is one of the founding fathers of this company and is not that far removed from being called the greatest wrestler in the world.

This should be great which you can clearly tell based on the over price on the star rating. Almost 2/1 favorite that this match will be over 4.25 stars, that’s one of the matches of the year level.

There are a lot of ways to go here, but I feel this one is a coin flip and I’ll be staying away. Just sit back and enjoy because these two are going to do everything in their power to steal the show.

Adam Page vs PAC

  • Adam Page (-139) vs. PAC (+100)
    • Dave Meltzer Star Rating
      Over 4.0 (+120)
      Exactly 4.0 (+240)
      Under 4.0 (-143)

AEW has done a great job of sort of rebuilding Adam Page since All Out when a lot of people weren’t fully behind him. “Cowboy Sh*t” is really getting over and he’s starting to get some strong reactions from the crowd.

That said, PAC is the man. This guy has lost exactly two matches since leaving WWE and a win here would further solidify him while building a potential future title match. I don’t think it would hurt Page too much to lose here and there is a story being told with him and his friends in the Elite where a loss might be the best thing for him right now.

PAC +100 is the play here.

Young Bucks vs. Santana & Ortiz

  • Santana & Ortiz (-177) vs. Young Bucks (+125)

These odds are a bit higher than I would like, but I am still all over betting Santana & Ortiz -177.

The Young Bucks are bulletproof and a loss won’t hurt them whatsoever. Santana & Ortiz are my pick for the next AEW World Tag Team champions so a win here would really move them to the top of the contenders list. This would also help build the Inner Circle versus The Elite feud that is dominating the storylines right now and could be leading to a War Games type match down the line.

Jack Hager interference? Sammy Guevera interference? Maybe. Either way Santana & Ortiz win.

AEW World Tag Team Championship – SCU (c) vs. Lucha Brothers vs. Private Party

  • SoCal Uncensored (-143) vs Lucha Brothers (+150) vs Private Party (+430)

The bad thing about the finals of the tag team tournament taking place just two weeks ago is that this one didn’t get a chance to get much build. It’s simply the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place teams from the tournament facing off.

Thanks to the lack of build and no real story, it seems like SCU will retain here. Scorpio Sky has been a breakout star and I think they continue to stoke that fire here. Bet

SCU -143.

Shawn Spears vs. Joey Janela

  • Shawn Spears (-250) vs Joey Janela (+175)

Whatever anyone thinks about Joey Janela, he has really done a great job of proving everyone wrong with great matches against Jon Moxley and the two against Kenny Omega. The second match against Kenny Omega on Dynamite where they avoided the weapons and just had a great wrestling match was a real eye opener for many.

He’s a future star in this company and that should start now. Shawn Spears is what he is at this point and a win for him won’t make a difference one way or the other. For Joey, this could be big for him going forward.

Plus, when I look at this card I see a lot of heels winning. We need some happy moments for the crowd. What better than the Bad Boy beating the Ten guy? Bet

Joey Janela +175.

AEW Women’s Championship – Riho vs. Emi Sakura

  • Riho (-275) vs Emi Sakura (+200)

Riho is awesome and the first true women’s star in AEW. This match has real steal the show potential and it might be my most anticipated match of the night.

That said, I can’t bet against Riho. She’s been too good and is getting too popular to lose here.

Bea Priestley vs. Britt Baker

  • Bea Priestley (-118) vs Britt Baker (-118)

Britt Baker is a dentist. She’s also been the chosen one in AEW thus far as she has gotten more television time than any other woman in the division. This is a grudge match between her and Bea Priestley, and it seems like a good place for a win for Britt. For one, Britt is full-time and I’m not sure Bea is. Second, this is the pre-show match. That match almost always features a babyface win to get the crowd hyped for the main show. That’s what I’m expecting here.

Britt Baker -118 is a great play.

AEW Full Gear Betting Tips:

  • Jericho/Cody Over 4.25 Stars +110
  • PAC +100
  • Santana & Ortiz -177
  • SCU -143
  • Joey Janela +175
  • Britt Baker -118

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About the author

Vince Morales is a freelance writer and website owner. You can see his face every week as one half of the Babyface Bullies. He spends way too much time thinking about Daniel Bryan.