AEW Dynamite/NXT Betting Odds: September 16th, 2020

The Wednesday Night Wars roll on with a head-to-head match-up on September 16th. The past few weeks have seen both leagues have their shows moved to different nights as the NBA and NHL Playoffs have shifted their schedules. This has lead to much bigger ratings for both shows, but as of now it feels unlikely that either show will move their time slot. This ratings war has never been about gaining a bigger audience.

AEW is coming off their highest ratings since early March and the highest individual number since their second ever episode. The September 2nd episode saw 928,000 viewers and the September 9th episode, their third highest ever, had 1,016,000 viewers.

NXT also saw huge bumps. They had 619,000 total viewers for the August 12th episode, the last head-to-head battle between the two leagues, and they drew 838,000 viewers on Tuesday last week with a match-up between Finn Balor and Adam Cole.

This will be the first head-to-head match-up between the two leagues in three weeks. AEW has a very tag heavy show while NXT has three titles matches.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds for the September 16th edition of the Wednesday Night Wars.

AEW Dynamite Betting Odds:

• Best Friends (-500) vs. Santana & Ortiz (+300)
• FTR (-625) vs. Jurassic Express (+350)
• Thunder Rosa (-1000) vs. Ivelisse (+500)
• Adam Page (-2000) vs. Frankie Kazarian (+700)
• Chris Jericho & Jake Hager (-1000) vs. Private Party (+500)
• Favourites Fest: Best Friends, FTR, Thunder Rosa, Jericho/Hager & A.Page all to win their scheduled matches – Yes (-182) / No (+130)

This is very heavy favorite show for AEW and it’s hard to see any upsets.

The Santana & Ortiz/Best Friends match appears to be the blow-off to their feud and it would be very surprising to see the Best Friends lose here. They already took one loss against this team in a big match and another one wouldn’t make any sense. The parking lot brawl stipulation should mean this is the end and a happy ending seems to be the right way to go.

Jurassic Express could maybe upset FTR in a non-title match, but that doesn’t really feel like an AEW type move. That’s a very WWE thing to do and I just can’t see it happening here.

The only match I could see an upset on is Adam Page and Frankie Kazarian. Adam Page is a great wrestler and one of the key members of the roster, but with Kenny Omega and the Young Bucks on his bad side – I would not be surprised to see some shenanigans. Doubtful, but possible.

WWE NXT Betting Odds:

• NXT Tag Team Championship: Breezango (-500) vs. Imperium (+300)
• NXT North American Championship: Damian Priest (-295) vs. Timothy Thatcher (+200)
• NXT Women’s Championship: Io Shirai (-625) vs. Shotzi Blackheart (+350)
• Number of title changes: Over 0.5 (+175) Under 0.5 (-250)
• Favourites Fest: Breezango, D.Priest & I.Shirai all to win their scheduled matches – Yes (-200) / No (+140)

I can make a pretty good case for all of the underdogs here and I would be shocked to see all three titles retain. The over on title changes looks like a very good bet.

Breezango winning the titles was a fun moment, but this is not the kind of team that is designed for a long title run. Imperium taking the titles back would not surprise me in the slightest.

Io Shirai is dominant and maybe the best wrestler in NXT, but how long is she going to be in NXT? She’s beyond ready to head up to the main roster and there is a hole on the main roster since Kairi Sane left. I think her time in NXT should be running out and Shotzi is as good as anyone to upset her.

Wrestling TV Ratings War:

• AEW (TNT): 0.85 million or more – Yes (-125) / No (-112)
• NXT (USA Network): 0.65 million or more – Yes (+100) / No (-139)
• AEW (TNT): 0.225 million more than NXT (USA Network) – Yes (-150) / No (+108)

In the last five head-to-head meetings, AEW has gone over 0.85 million once.

In the last five head-to-head meetings, NXT has gone over 0.65 million twice.

The last four head-to-head match-ups between these two saw AEW win by +0.225 million twice with the other two being 180k or less. There is no major NBA competition. AEW’s biggest number last week while NXT was down from the prior week has me leaving yes on that 0.225 million more than NXT bet, but the card isn’t inspiring me towards that.