AEW Dynamite/NXT Betting Odds: September 30th, 2020

The Wednesday Night Wars are back with another great week of wrestling action. AEW is building towards the big Anniversary show on October 14, 2020 while NXT is in the midst of building towards the NXT TakeOver 31.

Last week on NXT saw Rhea Ripley was a huge favorite to win the NXT Women’s Battle Royale, but it was taken by Candice LeRae at +200. Kyle O’Reilly was the winner of the Gauntlet Eliminator match at +175.

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COVID wreaked havoc on last week’s AEW show as the planned Jon Moxley, Will Hobbs, and Darby Allin vs. Lance Archer, Brian Cage, and Ricky Starks match did not take place due to Lance Archer not appearing on the show. The other two announced matches prior to the show saw both favorites win.

Both shows ended up finishing below their ratings odds for the week. AEW’s number set at 0.85 million and they ended up finishing with 0.835 million. NXT’s number was 0.7 million and they finished at 0.696 million. You could also have bet YES/NO for AEW to beat NXT by 0.175 million, that ended up as a no.

The shows had stiff competition from the NBA Playoffs last week and this week will be against Game 1 of the NBA Finals as well as a full day of MLB Playoffs action.

Complete odds for AEW, NXT, and the TV ratings for both shows are below.

AEW Dynamite Betting Odds:

  • Chris Jericho (-770) vs. Isiah Kassidy (+400)
  • Darby Allin (-139) vs. Ricky Starks (+100)

Chris Jericho faces Isiah Kassidy of Private Party in a singles match. This is classic Jericho facing a young wrestler and attempting to give them the rub, but it’s really hard to imagine Jericho losing to him. These odds are actually decent considering. I would put them at about -3000. Kassidy is a tag team wrestler and Jericho only has three singles match losses in his AEW career, and one of those was via being thrown into mimosa. He’s not losing here.

Starks vs. Allin is a very interesting match-up. This has been one of the better feuds in AEW and the main question is – Is this it? Because if it is then these are fantastic odds on Darby Allin. We just saw a couple of weeks back the way that AEW treats a big blowoff match as the Best Friends defeated Santana & Ortiz. This could very well be a singles version of that.

However, the lack of stipulation makes me think that this is merely another chapter in the story and something bigger is down the line. A body bag match or something like that. If that is ultimately the case, I’d have to go with Ricky here.

WWE NXT Betting Odds:

  • The Undisputed Era (-155) vs. Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch (+110)
  • Shotzi Blackheart (-190) vs. Dakota Kai (+134)
  • Johnny Gargano & Candice LeRae (-295) vs. Damian Priest & Io Shirai (+200)

Some fun matches with good odds on this week’s show.

The tag match will decide who faces Fandango & Tyler Breeze for the NXT Tag Team Championship at TakeOver. With Kyle O’Reilly challenging Finn Balor for the NXT World Championship at that show, it leaves The Undisputed Era in an interesting place. Is now the time to build towards the break-up? Finally? Or do they do what they usually do and put them in another title match on this show? Burch and Lorcan are doing some of the best work in all of WWE right now and it would be great to see them rewarded with a win here.

I was a bit surprised to see Shotzi as the favorite in this one. She’s been doing a great job in NXT, but Dakota Kai is an absolute star in my opinion. I’d go with Kai, but the favorite winning wouldn’t surprise me.

NXT is building to the title matches at TakeOver with this mixed tag between Io & Priest and Gargano & LeRae. Feels like the heels have to win this one to put some steam on the TakeOver matches.

Wrestling TV Ratings War:

Wrestling TV Ratings War:

  • Over/Under – AEW (TNT): 0.785 million or more – Yes (-118) / No (-118)
  • Over/Under – NXT (USA Network): 0.65 million or more – Yes (-106) / No (-134)
  • Spread – AEW (TNT): 0.15 million more than NXT (USA Network) – Yes (-112) / No (-125)

AEW is coming off a week of 833K viewers and NXT is coming off a week of 696K viewers so the sportsbooks think both will be down this week. This will be a very tough week from a competition standpoint as Game 1 of the NBA Finals and the first round of the MLB Playoffs will be in action.

The good news is that the first hour will be unopposed from the NBA Finals. However, the Yankees/Indians game will start before the show and end midway through. This level of competition is unprecedented and could mean a hit on both shows. We’ve seen in the past that the NXT audience, while smaller, is more loyal.

That said, AEW has only gone under that number once in the past seven head-to-head match-ups. While NXT has been under 650K three times over the same span.

Upcoming Events:

Event:Date:Where to Bet:
WWE Hell in a CellOctober 25th

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AEW Full GearNovember 7th

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WWE Survivor SeriesNovember 22nd

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About the author

Vince Morales is a freelance writer and website owner. You can see his face every week as one half of the Babyface Bullies. He spends way too much time thinking about Daniel Bryan.